Selasa, 17 Agustus 2010
A Murky Crystal Ball
While the early results of earnings season may not be giving investors much to cheer about, it is a nice diversion to the stock market's May-June sell-off.
And like a much needed summer holiday, it may be just the break penny stock investor's need before heading into the autumn trading season. But until then, we must weather a turbulent earnings season.
Now, I'm not sure if your favorite penny stock company has announced their quarterly results yet, but I have noticed that there seems to be something missing at the end of (some of) the reports. And it's making my ability to predict the future that much more difficult.
Typically, at the end of an earnings report, a company will finish off teasingly with a "forecast" or an "outlook" for the next quarter and sometimes the remainder of the year. Something that will make us stick by their side through thick and thin.
Unfortunately, market volatility and ever growing geopolitical tensions are making it tougher for companies to predict what's going on quarter-to-quarter.
Lebanon may not be an economic powerhouse that's part of your water cooler banter...but last week's Israeli bombing was enough to shake global markets. In addition, oil prices hit a new record and the Vix index of U.S. stock-market volatility shot up 29% in a week.
It's tough enough trying to accurately predict how well your company is going to do quarter-to-quarter when times are good. Throw in rising tensions in the Middle East, a depressed market, and an all too present hurricane season, and you've got a murky crystal ball.
Why? When consumers get strained by higher prices and pay more to borrow, investors are worried that they'll have less to spend; lowering overall demand for good and services. In return, some businesses need to absorb higher costs without scaring away customers. And customers like you and me are the ones that impact a company's earnings.
Still, penny stock investors ought not be too nervous about market jitters. Penny stock companies, by their very nature, can take advantage of changing economic conditions and opportunities better than big companies.
And a jittery market means there are still lots of good buying opportunities out there. There is obvious strength in oil and gas and precious metals. But for penny stock investors, you want to find something that isn’t obvious. Or at least isn't obvious to the rest of the investing herd.
Predicting the future of the stock market day-to-day is difficult enough, let alone trying to guess what you're going to do quarter-to-quarter; unless your name is Marty McFly, you own a De Lorean, and have a flux capacitor. In which case, we need to talk.